There was a lot of stuff being said about Brady just two weeks into the season. Many wondered, after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers weren’t so great on the offensive for the first two weeks, if Brady was finally feeling 45.
Here are the reasons why pirate crime hasn’t been so cool yet: Chris Goodwin, Donovan Smith, Julio Jones, Ryan Jensen. They have all missed time this season due to injury. Add on Ali Market and Rob Gronkowski, two very good players who have retired this season.
And this week, Mike Evans went on that list with suspension.
It’s hard to pass many judgments on Brady when Prishad Berryman is his best receiver and his offensive streak is overpowered. There are warning signs that it can’t be completely ignored, but Brady’s wall-hitting seems pretty far on the list of reasons why hackers haven’t made much of a point yet. In addition to the random arrangement of the lineup, they also played really good defenses.
This week is another tough test. The Green Bay Packers tied 1-1, but they are still one of the best teams in the NFC. They have the kind of defense that can make life difficult for a pirate attacking again.
Packers are single point underdogs in BetMGM, and will have attack issues as well. It’s overshadowed the pirate defense so far but it’s been great. They shut down the Dallas Cowboys before an injury to Dak Prescott forced him out of the game, and the New Orleans Saints were stuck at three points until trash time in Week Two.
I would trust the Packers and take the underdog. Looks like they found their groove a bit last week against the Chicago Bears. Last season they started poorly in Week 1 and ended up doing well. And if the Packers win on Sunday, it will likely be for reasons unrelated to Brady’s decline. We’ll have to wait to see the pirates in full force before we know what to make of Brady at 45.
Here are my picks against the spread for week 3, with lines from BetMGM:
Steelers (+4.5) above Brown
This is going to be an ugly game, as I said in The Daily Sweat on Thursday, and in a game with low goals, I’d take the underdog who gets more than 4 points.
Ravens (-3) over Patriot missiles
Yes, the crows are coming off a heavy loss and have had some injuries. But before collapsing in the fourth quarter, they were 35-14 in the Dolphins that pleases everyone. The Patriots still have a not very good insult.
Dolphins (+6) on the bills
It’s scary to go against the bill. They are the best team in football now. But odds makers will amplify every difference in the Buffalo Games until they have a reason not to. Dolphins have shown enough that you shouldn’t be an underdog in the 6-point house.
The Jets were blown up in Week 1 and dropped 13 points two minutes before the end of Week 2. They had a great win over the Browns but most of their season wasn’t good. The Bengals are a talented team that has a lot of urgency this week. Lose this and they will be in a big hole. Cincinnati understands that.
Saints (-3) on panthers
Panthers may be much worse than we thought. The New Orleans attack wasn’t great and I doubt the Saints will break through this week, but the defense is good. There is no reason to believe that the Panthers can constantly move the ball in good defense.
Black (+6) on Vikings
The Lions score 35.5 points per game. They’re not very good in attack, but they’re going to score some points this season. Minnesota looked great in week one and bad in week two, so it’s hard to know what happens next. But the lions are good enough at attacking that even if they don’t stay in the game all the time, the tailgate cover will eventually open.
Colts (+5.5) on bosses
It’s hard to let go of a team after two weeks. I loved the ponies entering the season. Then they delivered two alarming performances including a shocking 24-0 loss in Jacksonville. Maybe they are not good. But I give them an extra week.
Raiders (-2.5) on Titans
One of those teams will be 0-3 and have a foot in the grave in a tough encounter. The Raiders blew up last week’s game against Arizona but I think there’s a good squad left out there somewhere. I don’t have the same hope for the Titans this season.
Leaders (+6.5) above the Eagles
You would think this would be easy to pick eagles. They looked great on Monday night. They might be the best team in NFC or close to it. But it was a very easy choice for leaders. Overreaction is the way of the NFL world, and this line is an overreaction. The leaders have their issues but they have playmakers up front, and they’re at home with the Eagles out of Monday night’s game. The difference is very big.
Texas (+2.5) on beers
The Bears completed 15 passes in two games. They don’t trust Justin Fields. It goes back to the post-traumatic period, when the new system did nothing to help him. Texans aren’t very good either, but they fought hard this season and will continue to do so. I just don’t think bears are very good.
Chargers (-7) on Jaguar
This is the toughest game on the board. The line seems pretty high, but we’re willing to trust Jaguar cars on the road. I did it the first week and it didn’t go well. Chargers have a few extra days off. It’s a long ride for Jags. I’d go with chargers but not with great conviction.
Seahawks (-1.5) over Falcons
The NFL Red Zone isn’t going to get into this game very often. Yikes. It’s another game that I don’t have much conviction in, because both teams are bad. The Seahawks have quite a bit of talent. Can.
Rams (-3.5) on Cardinals
Are the Cardinals the team we saw go back to the fourth quarter to win in overtime last week, or the team that looked bad during the first seven quarters of this season? I know the Rams weren’t great but I’m not sure the Cardinals have fixed all their problems.
Bronco (+1.5) over 49 years old
Overrated stuff before? It also applies here. Everyone seems to think that Nathaniel Hackett should be sent off after two games, which is very far from the top. It was bad but even SEC fans are more patient with the coaches. The Broncos aren’t a bad team just because they didn’t look great in the first two games of the season. Fading over overreaction is one of the best tactics you can bet on in the NFL.
Cowboys (+1) above the giants
The line was moving the cowboy way, and I understand that. Of all the units in this game, the Cowboys’ defense is the one I trust the most. I don’t think the Giants will move the ball much.
last week: 9-7
Season so far: 16-16